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1. the impact of the epidemic on the domestic tdi market
during the spring festival of 2020, the new coronavirus the pneumonia epidemic spread rapidly across the country, and the whole country worked together to fight the epidemic. in order to avoid large-scale population movements and gatherings, prevention and control measures such as home isolation and extended spring festival holidays were adopted. the epidemic will interrupt the weak stabilization of china’s economy at the end of 2019. according to zeping’s macro forecast, under the background of greater nward pressure on the economy, it is a high probability event that gdp growth rate will exceed 6, and it may break 5 in the first quarter. the epidemic has had an impact on the domestic economy, and at the same time it has brought a big negative to china’s tdi market, putting itself in dire straits tdi was a little caught off guard.
after the mediation of tdi upstream, midstream and nstream parties a few years ago, the market showed a slightly gratifying upward trend. although it is not expected to rise sharply, it is still optimistic. however, due to the interference of the epidemic, the current guidance prices of some tdi factories remain stable, but a few middlemen who have already started work are mostly bearish, and only sporadic offers are made. nstream production companies have postponed the start of work until at least february 10. in addition, the logistics of hazardous chemicals has basically stagnated due to the impact of the epidemic, so there is basically no actual trading in the market. but in terms of quotations alone, the reference quotations for tdi in east china and south china before the festival are: 11700-11800 yuan for shanghai spot delivery in barrels with tickets nearly / ton; other domestic 11400-11500 yuan / ton. today after the festival, there are sporadic offers in east china and south china: shanghai spot barrels delivered with tickets are about 11,400-11,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic products are 11,200-11,300 yuan/ton, which is 200-300 yuan/ton lower than before the festival.
2. the impact of the epidemic on domestic tdi factories
in tdi when the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain are interrupted by a sudden epidemic, give tdithe factory brings both challenges and certain opportunities. the challenge is that the tdi factory is in continuous production. except for the maintenance time, it basically maintains continuous production even during the spring festival, so during the spring festival, national day and other long holidays tdi manufacturers will have a certain inventory pressure, but on the other hand tdithe factory can also take appropriate measures to reduce the load to respond flexibly. at this level, the production of the tdi factory is less affected by the epidemic , the impact mainly comes from the sudden interruption of sales, and it may be inevitable that the performance in the first quarter will be affected. regarding the opportunities brought by the epidemic to the tdi market, the editor believes that tdi factories will control the start-up load and inventory pressure to a certain extent, and the new tdi plant in xinjiang the start of production was originally reported to be in the first quarter. now that the epidemic is breaking out, it is not ruled out that manufacturers will adjust the start of production to a certain extent according to the development of the epidemic. the tdi market brings a certain buffer period.
3. the impact of the epidemic on nstream upholstered furniture companies
domestic nstream upholstered furniture companies are labor-intensive, and their production and sales are greatly affected by the epidemic. the overall start of nstream enterprises has been postponed. the earliest known date is around february 10. in fact, there is not much difference from the start of nstream enterprises after the lantern festival in previous years. however, due to the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of durable consumer goods such as upholstered furniture has declined. to the lowest level, so even after the nstream enterprises start work, the production load may be maintained at a low level in february, and the consumption of tdi will also decrease accordingly . in addition, nstream companies already had a large amount of inventory years ago. under the circumstances of low installation load and poor logistics and transportation, they will choose to consume more existing inventory.
as for the impact of the epidemic on nstream business, for large enterprises with overseas presence, their overseas export business will be less affected. due to the impact of the sino-us trade war, some large chinese mattress and sofa enterprises have already part of the production capacity has been deployed in southeast asia and other overseas countries and regions. affected by the epidemic, such enterprises may accelerate the promotion of overseas production capacity projects and increase the local production load. if the impact of the epidemic deepens and lasts longer, affecting domestic production, in addition to exporting to europe, america and other countries, these companies can also consider exporting some mattresses and sofas from southeast asia and other places to china to hedge the impact of the domestic epidemic on their production departments . therefore, during the epidemic period, domestic tdi factories may consider focusing on export business to ease production and inventory pressure to a certain extent. as for the domestic sales of small and medium-sized furniture companies, sponge companies, and large upholstered furniture companies, due to the impact of people staying at home and delaying work, the firstquarterly results are hardly immune to the impact of the outbreak.
4. market outlook
however, we have reason to believe that the epidemic and difficulties have a great impact on china and tdi the market is temporary. the whole country is united and united to fight against the epidemic. this kind of problem, and then in the not-too-distant spring of march and april, when the spring is warm and the flowers are blooming, we can enjoy our lives under the sun again.
